Breaking Up is Hard To Do
Secession
Friends,
Trump’s birthday military parade was a non-event that was thinly attended with videos showing sparsely populated bleachers and his own small contingency of cabinet members looking very bored. At the same time, an estimated five million people attended No Kings protests at more than 2,000 locations around the country. On balance, last weekend was not so good for Trump, but something is clearly wrong in our country when five million people take to the streets. Next time it will be more than five million.
I’ve received a lot of questions about the potential for California to secede from the United States. I touched on this earlier in Simply Complicated. This time we’ll look deeper into some of the details and issues that people have asked me about.
Motivation to secede is coming from The Trump administration’s naked hostility towards California. Some recent examples:
Regarding ordering the Marines into Los Angeles: “I don’t think that the president had any choice,” said Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.).
“These weren’t just protests—these were riots. And it was clear that the governor and the mayor—the mayor’s idea of containment was to give them a hug and a cup of hot cocoa. And the president did what he had to do.”
Secretary of Homeland Security Noem regarding ICE, the National Guard and Marines in LA:
“We are not going away. We are staying here to liberate the city from the socialists and the burdensome leadership that this governor and that this mayor have placed on this country and what they have tried to insert into the city.”
The “we” in that statement is the federal government and its military. The “burdensome leadership” is the elected governor of the state of California and mayor of the city of Los Angeles. Noem California is a burden on the U.S. and wants to “liberate” the people of California from their elected leaders.
A Trump administration employee told POLITICO, the Education Department may stop the disbursement of “formula funds,” which are awards based on a formula created by Congress.
“That is one of the tools and the opportunities that we have with California,” Education Secretary Linda McMahon said of the potential to pull the state’s funds on Tuesday at an event hosted by Bloomberg News. “And I think it’s right that we make them aware that that is a risk that they run.”
The formula she references is in a law passed by Congress.
“a risk they run” for doing what?
Lyrics to Breaking Up Is Hard To Do (Howard Greenfield & Neil Sedaka)
California’s position in the world and the United States
The GDP of California, with a population of 40M, ranks fourth in the world. California’s GDP is larger than that of Japan’s 120M people and slightly smaller than that of Germany’s 80M people.
California produces more agricultural products than any other U.S. state.
California contributes $806B / year to the federal coffers, $80B more than it receives back in services, benefits, and employment. California is literally subsidizing states that are net recipients of federal funds.
California is home to three of the top ten research universities in the world.
LA County has a population larger than 40 states. That means the LA County Board of Supervisors is managing a budget, providing the services, and addressing the issues needed for a population larger than 80% of the states that are managed by governors and state legislatures.
California is home to an estimated 23% of U.S. undocumented immigrants.
Changing Borders
In 1905, Norway, after having been in a union since 1804, split from Sweden.
In 1921, Ireland, after having been in a union with the United Kingdom since 1801, became an independent country while North Ireland remained in the union.
In 1944, Iceland, after having been in a union since 1918, seceded from Denmark .
In 1993, Czechoslovakia split into the Czech Republic and Slovakia, and Ethiopia split into Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Breaking up is not unusual.
Why secede?
The Constitution was written to create a country which is a republic of states, not a democracy of people. Because the focus was on uniting the colonies, it made the Senate, which represents the states, the most powerful body in the federal government.
The Senate must approve the appointment of every cabinet member, agency head, general, admiral, U.S. attorney and hundreds of other positions in the executive branch. The Senate has the final say on hiring all of the senior management positions in the executive branch, except the President and Vice President.
The Senate has the final say on the appointment of every federal judge.
The Senate is the only body which can convict the officers of the federal government (President, Vice President, judges, etc.).
No other body of the federal government can convict or dismiss a Senator.
The Senate must approve all government spending.
The Senate must approve every foreign treaty.
The U.S. Constitution was written to ensure that each colony/state would have equal representation. California is home to 12% of the American people and 2% of the Senators. When it comes to representation in the most powerful body of the U.S. government, Wyoming’s 578,000 residents, Vermont’s 648,000 and Alaska’s 740,000 each have the same voice as California’s 40M residents.
The smallest 21 states have a total population slightly smaller than California. Rather than attempt to sway the opinions of 40M Californian’s to win the support of two senators, lobbyists can focus on the 37M people in 21 states and win the support of 42 senators.
The majority of Senators, and at times, a plurality of U.S. voters, are convinced that California’s policies, from abortion and gay marriage to legal marijuana, embracing legal immigration and a diverse population, are literally destructive to the country as a whole.
Taxation without representation was the rallying cry of the American Revolution. The MAGA controlled Congress approved a change in tax laws which limited the deduction of state taxes from federal taxes. This legislation specifically targeted California and other states with higher state taxes in the belief that those taxes are harmful to the economy. Despite higher taxes, California produces more GDP per capita than any other state.
Both Californians, and those in other states, would be happy to split up.
A poll taken before Trump was inaugurated, found that 61% of Californians believe that peaceful secession from the U.S. would make Californians’ lives better.
One hundred and seventy-five years after joining the union, California and most of the states of the United States, are at best in a loveless marriage. As expressed by Secretary of Education McMahon, the federal government currently feels it must punish California; maybe it’s more of an abusive marriage?
Is it legal?
Yes, with the consent of Congress. In 1869 in Texas v. White, SCOTUS clearly left the door open to peaceful secession when it ruled [emphasis added]:
The union between Texas and the other States was as complete, as perpetual, and as indissoluble as the union between the original States. There was no place for reconsideration or revocation, except through revolution or through consent of the States.
Secession would most likely be the product of negotiation as there would be a number of assets and liabilities to be divided between California and the United States. In addition there would probably be mutually beneficial treaties to be established between the new country and the U.S. These peaceful negotiations have been successfully concluded before in other countries as cited above.
But what about…
Defense
In 2023 the U.S. spent $820B on defense, approximately $13.3% of the total federal budget and 3% of its GDP. China spends about 1.7% of it’s GDP on defense.
California’s defense and aerospace industry is about 1.7% of its GDP.
California could spend $80B on defense; 2% of it’s GDP. That be more than France and Japan, and roughly equivalent to Germany and the UK.
California would not be beholden to the “pork barrel” defense spending which determines much of the U.S. defense budget.
California would have an opportunity to develop a 21st century defense without the need to project power across the globe.
Federal lands and military bases
California is home to 7.5% of all federal lands. 12% of the U.S. population walking away with 7.5% of the federal lands seems like a good deal for the U.S.
The U.S. has arrangements with a number of foreign countries that enable the U.S. military to maintain bases in those countries. It’s conceivable, though not necessarily desireable, that such arrangements could be negotiated to allow U.S. military bases to continue to operate in California.
Social Security
Recipients of Social Security may reside in a different country and receive benefits. The U.S. has already received all the contributions from those recipients that it will receive. Current recipients should not be affected.
For those that have been contributing and are not yet retired, there is unfortunately no pot of money held by the federal government. The U.S. government has been using Social Security contributions to fund deficits for a many years. The government of California would need to assume the U.S. government’s social security obligations to the still working residents of California. This would be a major negotiation item since it is an unfunded obligation of the U.S. government.
Medicare
Medicare is a health insurance company (i.e., those insured pay premiums) with a dramatically lower cost of operation than private insurers (see the examples in Private Dancer).
The pharmaceutical industry has successfully lobbied Congress to not negotiate prices for drugs for Medicare recipients. Further, the industry charges all Americans 2x - 8x more for prescription drugs than the residents of any other country. This has given rise to Americans ordering their prescription drugs from Canada, some of which are in turn fulfilled by pharmacies in the UK. California would have an opportunity to bring drug costs for Californian’s down to match the costs in most other countries.
It is entirely feasible for California to operate a state run health insurance program and it would most likely be at a lower cost than Medicare.
Medicaid
Medicaid is a state operated health insurance plan that receives the majority of its funding from the federal government. Congress is in the process of drmatically reducing federal funding for Medicaid and shifting the cost to the states. How to fund Medicaid, or reduce benefits, will be resolved by the states before California could secede. The most likely outcome from secession would be the consolidation of Medicaid and Medicare into a state run health insurance program.
Trade
The U.S. would likely continue to be California’s largest trading partner so trade agreements would need to be negotiated with the U.S, as well as with a number of other countries.
The situation would most likely be similar to that of the UK and the EU after Brexit, with California in the role of the EU, having higher product standards than those in the U.S.
This means that California’s export products (from agriculture to medical devices) would meet or exceed quality standards required by the U.S., though not all U.S. products might meet California’s standards. This was encountered fifty years ago with automobile exhaust standards and the world’s auto manufacturer’s quickly rose to the challenge and met California’s standards in order to participate in it’s markets. This is exactly what the UK is doing in order to continue exports to the EU, despite Brexit.
California imports 75% of the oil it consumes. This is essentially equivalent to the 76% of it’s consumption imported by China. California could import oil from the U.S., Mexico, and Venezuela. Both California and China are rapidly moving to sustainable energy which reduces their dependence on foreign oil.
Trump’s trade wars will be a footnote in history by the time California could secede.
Everything else
Every member of the G7 has government functions similar to the U.S. That includes everything from weather forecasting to a legal system, product standards, health care and post office. There is no reason that a country with the 4th largest economy in the world could not provide all the services that California currently receives from the U.S. government.
Would Washington, Oregon and Hawaii join California?
Washington, Oregon and Hawaii would add about 13M people and $1.3T in GDP to California.
The union of the four states would create a country with the third largest GDP in the world, behind China and the U.S.
It’s impossible to know if the people of those states would want to join California. Eastern portions of Washington and Oregon have expressed a desire to secede from their respective states and join Idaho. If a referendum to secede passed in California, I would expect Oregon, Washington and Hawaii to seriously consider the question and it would be a second question to be considered by Californians.
How would secession happen?
The California legislature would need to commission a study to dig more deeply into the issues raised and discussed above. The legislature could either be required to do this by a voter approved initiative (this is the focus of CALEXIT), or they could be convinced to pass a law creating the commission (this is the focus of the Independent California Institute).
Californian’s would need to approve a referendum which directs the governor to commence negotiations with the U.S. government with the goal of gaining the approval of Congress.
Negotiations with the U.S. would probably take 1-2 years and need to culminate in Congressional approval of a separation agreement.
What are the alternatives?
The first alternative is to do nothing. Californian’s can simply accept that their voice will always be disproportionately smaller and that they will be subject to the will of the states that have struggling economies, poorer health outcomes and abhor immigrants and diversity.
The alternative that would keep the United States together is a constitutional amendment that would transform the U.S. from a republic of states, to a democracy of people. The amendment would move control of voting rights, the composition of the legislative branch, and the election of the President and Vice President from the states to the federal government. The amendment would replace the “winner take all” legislative districts with some form of proportional representation which would most likely result in a multi-party legislature. This is essentially the form of government I recommend for California as a country. These are the major changes required, but there are certainly details to be defined.
The Voting Rights Act (VRA) of 1965 was intended to ensure that every citizen had an equal opportunity to vote. The law was resisted by many states who preferred to retain their voter suppression policies. This resistance was supported by SCOTUS in a series of decisions which, in combination with a MAGA controlled Department of Justice, has now ended all enforcement of the VRA.
The amendment would move control of voting rights to the federal government and guarantee all citizens equal access to voting.
Abolish the Electoral College and elect the President and Vice President by the popular vote of the people.
Establish a proportional representative system of electing 100 senators and roughly 400 members of congress. Neither senators or members of congress would specifically represent a state, though certainly some districts would be wholly contained within one state.
Establish new criteria for the ratification of amendments to the constitution. This is a very challenging problem as when it is too easy, it can result in enabling a tyrant to create a constitutional autocracy as in Hungary, and if is too difficult it results in a constitution where necessary changes are too easy to block.
What You Can Do
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Change starts with talking about the need for change and evolves into talking about the change itself and effecting the change. Discuss the pros and cons of secession with your friends and neighbors.
A friend at Friends of the River (who would appreciate your donation) suggests that the best way to cope with Trump’s “flood the zone” assault is to:
Pick one cause that is important to you and move the needle on that cause
Show up - be engaged - participate
Get good people elected
Subscribe to the podcast How to Fix It with John Avlon or at least listen to the episode entitled How to Stop a Civil War: Podcast on podcast apps and video on YouTube.
Sign up and volunteer or donate to the organizations that leading the opposition to the Trump administration:
Support my friend Janelle Kellman’s campaign for California Lieutenant Governor.
Remember
I tell you what freedom is to me: no fear. - Nina Simone
Love this, Russ…great historical and legal perspectives integrated into tempting “What If’s”…I’m gonna look into your references and hyperlinks; thanks for those as well!💪